Closer Than We Think
The desire to predict the future is ingrained in human nature. Not only does it provide the security that comes alongside a perceived sense of control, but it also allows people to explore endless imaginative possibilities. In milestone years, it has become a commonplace for artists to illustrate the advancements they think will be made in the next decade, century, or more. Leah Kohler ’28 dives into one French cartoonist’s predictions.
At the turn of the 20th century, French cartoonist Jean-Marc Côté designed a set of 50 cards to imagine what the world would look like in 100 years. The cards were designed to be mass-produced and sold as cigarette box inclusions and postcards. While a few sets were published, production ultimately halted, and the cards sat untouched until 1986, when they were republished under the title Futuredays: A Nineteenth Century Vision of the Year 2000.
25 years after the 21st century began and a quarter of the way to the 22nd, I took a deep dive into Côté’s work to see what was achieved before 2000, what has been achieved since then, and what remains a vision of a possible future. Here are some of my favorites.
Prediction #1: Hearing the Newspaper
Radio made its debut in 1895, transmitting Morse code to a receiver over a mile away . However, many people were still skeptical as to whether the technology would amount to anything of value. When Côté created this drawing in 1900, being able to hear the news from long distances away remained a futuristic concept. After the first radio news broadcast occurred in 1920, owning a radio became a vital connection to the world. According to the Pew Research Center, in 2000, 43% of Americans received the majority of their news from the radio. That percentage has seen a sharp decline in the past 25 years, with the percentage now at 6%. Conversely, with the rise of the internet, the number of people who get their news from online sources has continued to increase. In 2000, the percentage was 23%. Since then, it has more than doubled at 58%. In addition to those sources, 32% of today’s Americans get their news from cable programs and 4% from print newspapers. What was once a far-off vision for the future, radio has both risen and fallen in popularity, making way for newer, more innovative technologies.
Prediction #2: An Electric Brush
Just barely making the 21st-century cutoff, the robot vacuum was invented by Electrolux in 1996. However, the technology was far from perfect, nor was it flying off the shelves. It took until 2002 with the introduction of the Roomba for robot vacuums to become a common fixture in American homes. Even though it is not a perfect cleaning method, the time that is saved adds up. According to iRobot (the company that developed Roomba), the vacuum can save up to two hours per week and 110 hours per year. While not necessarily the electric brush that Côté imagined, it comes very close and has become a valuable tool in completing daily chores.
Prediction #3: Cinema-Phono-Telegraphic Correspondence
Video calling technology has been around since the late 1920s, but it was not an instant success. Similarly to other technologies at the time, many people doubted its value. As a result, the devices introduced were not popular enough to make waves in the mainstream market. That is, until 2010 and Apple’s release of FaceTime. Taking into account the vast number of technological advancements made since 1900, Côté’s prediction is fairly accurate.
Prediction #4: The Aviator Agent
It’s hard to think of a vision for the future that does not include flying cars, and subsequently, creative ways to police them. While we are not yet an aviation-based society in our everyday comings and goings — airplanes are not as predominantly used as cars — the development of flying cars remains a common goal for those in the auto industry. Maybe they’ll be around in 2100?
Prediction #5 (and my personal favorite): The Army Has Hippopotamuses
It’s unclear whether being on the backs of hippopotamuses would make fighting easier or harder, but it would definitely make it more interesting. Are hippopotamuses used as a weapon or just a mode of transportation? Does the battle need to take place underwater? How many hippopotamuses would an army need? Would other unconventional animals find themselves facing warfare? There are so many questions, but I’m afraid we have yet to find answers.